Informed Comment

Capital of Khazar Kingdom said Found

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 17:36:00 +0000

Russian archeologists are saying they have found the capital of the Khazar state. This largely Turkic state was multicultural, but its ruling sept converted to Judaism, which it used as the state religion. If it is borne out, this discovery will shed loads of illumination on Jewish history as well as on early medieval life in the area above the Caspian Sea.

The old thesis that most Ashkenazi European Jews were descended from the Khazars has been disproved by genetic testing (a majority of Ashkenazi men have haplotypes common to Palestinian and Lebanese populations), though some Khazar Jews may have been absorbed into the Ashkenazi community.

I recently enjoyed reading

Michael Chabon's "Gentlemen of the Road", much of which is set in the Khazar kingdom, and is part homage to Fritz Leiber's Fafhrd and the Gray Mouser and part allegory of the modern Middle East.

Assassination Attempt on Chalabi; Baghdad Outraged at Bush Spying on Maliki; Iraq Seeks F-16s

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 04:41:00 +0000

A suicide bomber attempted to assassinate Ahmad Chalabi on Friday as the politician was returning home to the Mansur district. The bomb killed 6 bodyguards and wounded 17 persons, but missed its main target.

Advisor to the Ministry of Defence, Abdulameer Hasen Abbas was shot as he was driving near Shaab district in eastern Baghdad.

Iraqi officials expressed outrage at the revelation in Bob Woodward's new book that the Bush administration has been spying on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Iraqi spokesman Ali Dabbagh warned of future bad relations between Iraq and the CIA if the allegations proved true. Even Kurdish lawmaker Mahmud Osman denounced the spying as a breach of friendship.

Several hundred followers of Muqtada al-Sadr demonstrated against the US occupation in Kufa on Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, a clerical representative of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani called on Iraqis not to let their government off the hook with regard to the promises it had made to deliver basic services. At the Buratha mosque in north Baghdad, Jalal al-Din Saghir of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) demanded that the minister of electricity be fired and replaced with someone more competent.

The 16,000 US troops in Baghdad could be withdrawn from the capital by next June, allowed Gen. David Petraeus. The security agreement being negotiated between al-Maliki and Bush calls for US troops to withdraw from Iraqi cities to bases outside them by the end of June, 2009.

Over all, US troop levels could decline from 146,000 now to 139,000 by early January, a reduction of 7,000. (In November of 2007 there were 163,000 US troops in Iraq). In summer, 2005, there were 136,000 US troops in Iraq. The number was increased for the elections of Dec.2005, then reduced back to 133,000 in March, 2006. So as Bush goes out of office, there will still be more in early 2009 than there were early in his second term.

The Iraqi government is going on an arms buying spree in the military-industrial Mall of the US. It just inquired about 36 F-16 fighter jets, and is also seeking armored vehicles and helicopter gunships. In recent security operations in Basra and Sadr City, the Iraqi army was dependent on the US for crucial air support, and the al-Maliki government seems to determined to develop its own air capabilities. Likewise, Iraq will spend $11 bn. on weapons such as 140 Abrams tanks.

I have long held that until the Iraqi military can effectively deploy armor and helicopter gunships, it won't be able to act on its own to establish internal order in the country. I notice that in the Maysan campaign al-Maliki launched against the Sadrists in Amara this summer, Iraqi armor appears to have played a role.

Aljazeera English asks, 'Who controls Khanaqin,' examining the conflict between the Iraqi government in Baghdad and the Kurdish Peshmerga paramilitary over control of the eastern, largely Kurdish city in Diyala Province, near Iran.

There was a dispute on Friday between Kurdish and Shiite sources about whether government forces and the Peshmerga paramilitary had reached an agreement on the disputed city.

Rania Abouzeid at Time reports that many Baghdad voters are apathetic about provincial elections, uncertain that they will bring increased services such as electricity and potable water.

Palin Watch

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 04:01:00 +0000

Reactions to Sarah Palin:

Rick Steiner at Seattle P.I. slams the governor for her poor record on the environment. He says she has not taken climate change seriously, despite the thinning of the arctic ice cover; has sued Bush to stop polar bears being declared an endangered species (and lied about the scientific evidence); opposed the clean water initiative and supported mining operations that would pollute salmon streams; supports drilling everywhere you could drill regardless of the environmental impact; and has coddle Exxon with regard to compensation payments over the Valdez disaster.

Subpoenas will be issued in the investigation of whether Palin misused her powers as governor to conduct a personal vendetta against her ex-brother-in-law and wrongfully fired a public safety commissioner because he would not fire the latter.

Gee, wasn't one of the charges against Kwame Kilpatrick, who was just forced to step down as mayor and faces 4 months in prison, that he fired a deputy police chief and other officers for personal reasons?

And then, she seems to be hiding from us.

Allegations of Israeli Plan to Attack Iran from Georgia

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 21:40:00 +0000

This story has been around for a week or so, alleging that Israel was planning to strike at Iran from Georgia.

Arnaud de Borchgrave put it more cautiously, that the Israelis thought of their jets in Georgia as useful in case they decided to do a preemptive strike on Iran.

More recently, deputy speaker of the Russian parliament, Sergei Markov, seems to have alleged an even more aggressive plan on Israel's part.

Debka also looks at the issue.

Personally, I don't understand how this could work. You'd have to fly over Armenia, which is an ally of Iran and would not permit it. Or over Turkey, which is out of the question. Or over Azerbaijan, which I also don't think would permit it. Surely both the small Caucasian states have anti-aircraft batteries and some jets. Turkey is a major military power in the region.

And then Georgia is not so far from Iran, which has 12 times its population, and could wreak a horrible revenge.

The only way Iran could be forestalled would be if Georgia was admitted to NATO first so that an attack on one would then be an attack on all. But NATO would not approve of Georgia lending its military facilities to a non-member for military aggression.

Just makes no sense to me. Maybe Israeli aircraft could do some kind of surveillance on Iran from Georgia? Or Borchgrave's idea of a contingency plan for a preemptive strike if war started brewing is plausible. Israel using Georgia as a base for attacking a third country, I don't think so.

Rambo and the Mean Girl

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 04:52:00 +0000

The Republican Party convention in St. Paul gave us two American film narratives in an attempt to shift the national political debate away from issues and accountability to personalities and fluffy ideals.

Former Reagan speech writer Peggy Noonan let the strategy slip in an unguarded open mike moment. Asked if Sarah Palin is the most qualified woman Republican the McCain camp could have found, Noonan exploded: "The most qualified? No! I think they went for this -- excuse me-- political bullshit about narratives --"

McCain's convention speech positioned him as John Rambo. The popularity of Rambo: First Blood 2, historian Melani McAlister argued in her Epic Encounters, derived from the way it allowed its hero, a betrayed veteran, to fight the Vietnam War all over again and to win this time. McAlister suggests that the popularity in the United States of Israeli macho operations such as Entebbe derived from this same Rambo complex, a desire to compensate for the humiliating defeat of the United States by the Vietnamese and their Chinese and Russian allies.

McCain dwelled at length on his years as a prisoner of the Vietnamese and even adverted briefly to having been broken by torture. The rage and abasement of that moment when he signed a confession of war crimes and denounced the United States

McCain has spoken of his breaking before, as in an October 12, 1997 60 Minutes interview that his critics sometimes misquote:

'Sen. McCAIN: I m--made serious, serious mistakes and did things wrong when I was in prison, OK?

WALLACE: What did you do wrong in prison?

Sen. McCAIN: I wrote a confession. I was guilty of war crimes against the Vietnamese people. I intentionally bombed women and children.

WALLACE: And you did it because you were being tortured...

Sen. McCAIN: I...

WALLACE: ...and you'd reached the end of the line.

Sen. McCAIN: Yes. But I should have gone further. I should have--I--I never believed that I would--that I would break, and I did.'

The film Rambo III had the former Green Beret go off to fight in Afghanistan against the Soviets. Ronald Reagan and Saudi King Fahd's joint jihad against the Soviet Union was a kind of real-life Ramboism, a guerrilla war paid for with $5 bn from the US and Saudi matching funds, and funneled through the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence. McCain also supported the raising of a private army of tens of thousands of Muslim jihadis to target Soviet troops and Afghan communists:

' Consider this AP article from 1985:

' Rep. Tom Loeffler, R-Tex., presented the "Freedom Fighter of the Year" award to Afghan resistance leader Wali Khan on behalf of the U.S. Council for World Freedom on Oct. 3.

Loeffler called on Congress and the American people to "broaden support" for freedom fighters in Afghanistan, reminding listeners of America's own fight for freedom.

Congress has agreed to give $15 million in covert assistance to the Afghan cause, the first time the legislators have "stepped forward" with aid since the beginning of the conflict, according to Loeffler. . .

Accepting the award on behalf of Khan was Pir Syed Ahmed Gailani, head of the National Islamic Front of Afghanistan, for which Khan commands 20,000 resistance fighters.

Other congressmen who joined Loeffler included Rep. Eldon Rudd and Rep. John McCain, both Arizona Republicans. '

It was out of the Reagan jihad about which McCain was so enthusiastic that al-Qaeda emerged.

The Iraq War is another Rambo moment for McCain, another opportunity to redeem himself and his country from the failure of Vietnam. McCain's insistence on a "victory" in Iraq that he will not define is more the compulsive acting out of an internal script than it is military strategy or tactics. McCain's victory narrative about Iraq requires that he ignore what I wrote about earlier this week:

' AP reports that Baghdad is still very dangerous despite lowered death tolls from political violence:
' Small scale bombings and shootings persist in the capital � each a reminder that the war is not over and that Baghdad remains a place where no trip is routine and residents are still guided by precautions. Most won't drive at night. Many try to avoid heavily clogged streets, remembering that suicide bombers and other attackers intent on killing large numbers of civilians favor traffic jams or congested areas . . . [in August] at least 360 civilians were killed and more than 470 wounded in violence throughout the country, according to an Associated Press count. '

That would be 4,320 civilians killed in political violence every year if the level stayed that low. (I take it this number excludes killed 'insurgents' and Iraqi security forces, so that actual number of war-related deaths would be much higher annually.)

It is estimated that 75,000 persons have died in the civil war in Sri Lanka since 1982, or 2800 a year.

Iraq is higher, just with regard to civilian casualties.

The Kashmir conflict is estimated to have killed 70,000 persons since 1988, or about 3500 a year.

Iraq is higher.

In the Lebanon Civil War of 1975-1990, it is estimated that at least 100,000 persons were killed, 75,000 civilians and 25,000 military.

If we extrapolated out Iraq's August death rate for civilians over 15 years, that would be 64,000 or not far from the toll in Lebanon's war.

Let me repeat: The level of violence at this moment in Iraq is similar to what prevailed on average during one of the 20th century's worst ethnic civil wars! It is still higher than the casualty rates in Sri Lanka and Kashmir, two of the worst ongoing conflicts in the world.

Only in an Orwellian society could our press declare the relative decline in monthly death tolls in Iraq to constitute "calm" in an absolute sense.

And that is if the August levels are taken as the baseline and if the numbers continue to be that low. If we averaged deaths during the previous 12 months, the baseline would be much higher.

The current Iraq Civil War is one of the world's most deadly continuing conflicts, worse than Sri Lanka and Kashmir and on a par with the 15-year long Lebanon Civil War!'

A crucial element in the fall of violence from the catastrophic levels of summer,2006, was the ethnic cleansing of Baghdad of its Sunnis. I wrote in mid-July:

"As best I can piece it together, what actually seems to have happened was that the escalation troops began by disarming the Sunni Arabs in Baghdad. Once these Sunnis were left helpless, the Shiite militias came in at night and ethnically cleansed them. Shaab district near Adhamiya had been a mixed neighborhood. It ended up with almost no Sunnis. Baghdad in the course of 2007 went from 65% Shiite to at least 75% Shiite and maybe more. My thesis would be that the US inadvertently allowed the chasing of hundreds of thousands of Sunni Arabs out of Baghdad (and many of them had to go all the way to Syria for refuge). Rates of violence declined once the ethnic cleansing was far advanced, just because there were fewer mixed neighborhoods. Newsrack was among the first to make this argument, though I was tracking the ethnic cleansing at my blog throughout 2007. See also Karen DeYoung of the Washington Post on this issue.". . .

As Think Progress pointed out,the Washington Post illustrated Karen DeYoung's important article with a clear ethnic map showing the ethnic cleansing:

The point is not that there are no Sunni enclaves left in Baghdad, only that there are many fewer such enclaves, and that many formerly mixed neighborhoods are now entirely Shiite. In fact, this ethnic cleansing is among the major reason that the some 4 million Iraqis displaced internally and externally by Bush's war refuse to return. They have nothing to return to. The mixed or Sunni neighborhoods from which the Sunnis among them escaped no longer exist. A fourth of the Iraqi refugees in Jordan have, moreover, had a child kidnapped. Even if the child was returned, the family is not going to risk returning.

In my earlier post, I also quoted this:

"As Think Progress quoted CNN correspondent Michael Ware:

' The sectarian cleansing of Baghdad has been � albeit tragic � one of the key elements to the drop in sectarian violence in the capital. [�] It�s a very simple concept: Baghdad has been divided; segregated into Sunni and Shia enclaves. The days of mixed neighborhoods are gone. [�] If anyone is telling you that the cleansing of Baghdad has not contributed to the fall in violence, then they either simply do not understand Baghdad or they are lying to you.'

"

McCain and ideologues such as Fred Kagan must deny or ignore the ethnic cleansing of Baghdad and other areas, and ignore the millions of Iraqis now living abroad or in other provinces, many of them in dire straits, because their Rambo complex forces them to insist that an extra 30,000 US troops, inserted for 16 months, made all the difference.

McCain's Rambo foreign policy sets him on a course of confrontation with Russia, which he has not forgiven for its aid to Vietnam in the old days, and with Shiite Iran, which his party's propaganda continues to confuse with Sunni radicalism of al-Qaeda.

One of those slick films shown at the convention on Thursday commemorating the victims of 9/11 actually asserted that "it began in 1979" with the taking of US embassy personnel hostage in Tehran. The film then skipped over to the Sunni radicals. I can't understand what the Iranian hostage crisis has to do with 9/11. This conflating of all Muslim movements, in which McCain frequently engages, is just another Big Lie. Iranians were upset by 9/11 and sympathetic to the US, holding candlelight vigils. President Khatami spoke heartwarmingly against the terrorism that had struck the US, explaining that Iran had also suffered grievously from terrorism.

Moreover, Gary Sick gave circumstantial evidence that Reagan dealt with the Iranians behind the scenes to forestall a hostage release that would reelect Jimmy Carter. And Reagan's extensive dealings with the regime in Tehran, to the point of stealing weaponry from the Pentagon warehouses and selling it to Ayatollah Khomeini, are well known. Now for Reagan's heirs to blame 9/11 of their old partner in crime, Iran, is rich (not to mention being pathological in its dishonesty).

The Iranian hostage crisis came only 4 years after the US embassy in Saigon (later Ho Chi Minh City) was overrun and its personnel forced to helicopter out precariously. In some ways, the affront of Iran is intertwined with the humiliationof Vietnam. Perhaps this twinning of the two in his mind is what led McCain to sing "Bomb,bomb, bomb Iran" to the tune of an old Beach Boys song.

McCain keeps saying that he knows war and hates it and wants to avoid it. But no one can name a war in recent memory that he did not wholeheartedly promote. He was an enthusiastic cheerleader for Vietnam, Afghanistan in the 1980s, the Gulf War, and the 2003 Iraq War. His record strongly indicates that if elected he will plunge the US into yet more violent conflict, in a never-ceasing quest to wipe out that stain on his character, of having been broken in Vietnam, and that blemish on US nationalism, of defeat.

McCain cannot conceive of ordinary people being important, or of the simple proposition that the US could not subdue a left-nationalist mass movement in a densely populated Asian country. It was physically impossible.

In the same way, the US cannot completely dominate 27 million Iraqi Muslims. They won't put up with US bases in their country even for 5 years, much less the half-century that McCain fondly envisages. [See Tomdispatch.com on the American fixation on foreign bases]. Being Rambo is about never having to take account of the wishes of third world publics.

As for Sarah Palin, her spiteful and snarky dismissal of Barack Obama and community organizers recalls the Tina Fey film "Mean Girls." Palin, the former beauty queen with a gun, is very like the leader of the Plastics clique in "Mean Girls," the Rachel McAdams character, Regina George. Her clique sets the standard for style at school, establishing itself at the top of the social hierarchy by its regimented exclusiveness. Those who are in any way different are put down by the Plastics, who crow about their superiority just as Palin exults in her (largely non-existent) "executive experience." Although the surface narrative of Sarah Palin is her everywoman small town ordinariness, the subtext is that she is special, as capable of shooting a tiger as Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and as at the same time a veritable Miss World. The McCain camp is hoping that the American common person will be seduced into Palin's Plastic clique just as the Lindsay Lohan character was in the film. (Lohan's character was initially an outsider, having returned from Africa . . .)

The classic Mean Girl tactics are snark, put-downs and spreading around false rumors about people you don't like. When Palin falsely charged that Obama planned to raise taxes on middle class people, or blamed Senate majority leader Harry Reid for inaction even though it was the Republican plurality in the Senate that rejected most of his initiatives, she is playing classic Regina, declaring who is in the Plastic clique and who is outside. Even the boasting about being a hockey mom is a claim on status (poor women are not hockey moms, and how many minority women are?)

Palin's put-down of Obama that he lacks executive experience (unlike her own superior Mean Girl self) makes it sound as though she had run something bigger than he had. But Obama has been head of a political campaign with hundreds of thousands of workers and volunteers. Doesn't a campaign head organize people and give orders and plan strategy and tactics, i.e., act in an executive capacity? Isn't that what Barack Obama has been doing for two years and hasn't he proven that he is an excellent executive in this endeavor? Only 114,000 or so people voted to make Palin governor in 2006. In contrast, Obama's executive performance as head of his presidential campaign garnered him 18 million votes.

Rambo and the Mean Girl are narratives intended as what magicians call misdirection.

A good magician can use this technique to make a whole elephant disappear.

The Republican Party has given us a failed war in Iraq. None of the stated Bush administration goals in invading Iraq were ever actually accomplished. No threat from Iraq existed, it was completely unrelated to 9/11,had no serious weaponry or military capability, and is not 'liberated' but rather occupied. The government installed under US auspices is best friends with the ayatollahs in Iran and may actually be taking orders from them on some issues.

McCain wholeheartedly supported that war from before it was launched. Yet McRambo is posing as a challenger of the war, and is rebranding this burned-out hulk of a country that he helped to destroy as a "victory."

The Republican Party gave us a long list of massive scandals, in which the American public was actively stolen from and defrauded, not to mention disenfranchised. That was the point of Jack Abramoff and his pyramid scheme intended to create a permanent Republican majority, so that the hogs at the trough could be propped up there and remain indefinitely a drain on your pocketbook. That was the point of Tom Delay's scam, and the many cases of embezzlement and sheer criminality by Republican lawmakers.

Rambo and the Mean Girl will tell you that they are the squeaky clean Republicans, not like all those other Republicans, and we should focus on them, not on all the crooks.

The Republican Party has massively grown the size of the federal government, including especially of the Pentagon, but Rambo and the Mean Girl are all of a sudden promising to fire every other government employee.

The Republican Party oversaw the mortgage crisis. But won't admit it,and neither will these two.

You want a narrative, about a war hero tortured by the confession he signed, or about a feisty hockey mom who cleaned out the Augean stables of Seward's Ice Box, then you have got it.

You want real policy positions and a rationale for them that goes beyond "I will make my friends rich," then you won't find that in the convention in Minnesota.

US Raid on Pakistan leaves 30 Dead; Pakistan Government Protests; 3 Canadian Troops killed in Afghanistan

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 05:06:00 +0000

US ground troops conducted a raid into Pakistan's tribal areas leaving an estimated 20 dead. The governor of the North-West Frontier Province, Owais Ahmed Ghani, said that the raid was 'outrageous," and the government charged that women and children were among the dead. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry called US ambassador Ann Patterson in for an explanation.

The US was already in trouble with people in this region because of an air raid in Afghanistan that killed civilians. Bush ~~apologized~~ expressed 'regret' to President Hamid Karzai for the deaths of the innocents. Afghans maintain that some 90 people were killed in the air strike. The US military insists that the toll was 30 dead Taliban and 7 dead civilians.

Also, on Wednesday, Pakistani prime minister Yousef Raza Gilani's car was fired on, presumably by the Tehrik-i Taliban; he was not in it at the time.

Despite a cease-fire for the fasting month of Ramadan, Pakistani security forces fought tribal militants in Swat on Tuesday and Wednesday, leaving 30 Taliban dead and several Pakistani troops, as well.

Aljazeera English on the struggle in the North-West Frontier Province between Pushtun nationalists and the fundamentalist vigilantes:

Since the province voted the secular nationalists into power last February, I conclude that the fundamentalists aren't all that popular.

On the situation inside Afghanistan: Aljazeera English reports that the neo-Taliban believe they could take the city of Ghazni at any time:

Pushtun guerrillas killed 3 Canadian / NATO troops on Wednesday in southern Afghanistan.

7 Killed by US in FriendlyFire; China Deal to Gross $55 bn for Iraq

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 04:54:00 +0000

The US killed 7 Iraqi troops in a friendly fire incident on Wednesday.

What do you want to bet the incident gets brought up at the talks between the US and Iraq on a security agreement?

The Iraqi government has presented new proposals in its negotiations with the United States over a bilateral security agreement. Iraq says the US has three days to respond.

Iraq expects to gross $55 bn. on the 20-year oil services deal it just signed with China.

The Iraqi election commission says it will need four months to arrange for provincial elections from the moment parliament passes the necessary legislation.

Sarah Palin thinks that the Iraq War is a task from God. Well, it is true that none of the conventional explanations is much good.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Wednesday.

'Baghdad

- At dawn, Iraqi army, police and Sahwa check point on Tigris River opened fire on a suspected boat in the river in Tarmiyah (25 miles north of Baghdad). Later, the fire came from the boat and An American helicopter which arrived after having a call from that American boat. Six Iraqi members were killed and ten others were injured, police said. While the MNF-I press desk reply was �We have initial reports that while coalition forces were conducting operations against suspected AQI there was an incident involving weapons fire between Coalition and Iraqi Security Forces north of Tarmiyah, Baghdad. Reports indicate ISF sustained casualties. Coalition aircraft were involved in this incident. It is always regrettable when incidents of mistaken fire occur on the battlefield; a review of the circumstances is under way�.

- Around noon, a roadside bomb targeted an American patrol in Waziriyah neighborhood (north Baghdad). Two people were injured while there are no casualties reported on the America side.

- Police found one dead body in Baghdad today in Shaab neighborhood(north Baghdad).

Salahuddin

- An American squad raided a house in Alam village (about 6 miles north east of Tikrit). Tahseen Mikhlif who is a student was killed by that squad, police said. While the MNF-I says �Coalition forces killed a weapons facilitator in Tikrit during an operation to disrupt the AQI bombing network in the Tigris River Valley. Intelligence reports indicate the man was trafficking rockets and bombing components for a Tikrit-based cell, and may have had ties to the AQI propaganda network. When Coalition forces called out for occupants of the target building to surrender, several people came out but told the force one man was still inside. During a security sweep of the building, Coalition forces found the terrorist, dressed in women�s clothing and hiding under a bed with a rifle and military-style assault vest. Perceiving hostile intent, Coalition forces engaged and killed the armed terrorist, who was later determined to be the weapons facilitator. Coalition forces detained five suspected terrorists during the operation and found several weapons, body armor and bomb components�.

- Around 9 pm, a roadside bomb targeted the police patrol in downtown Tikrit near Nabaa restaurant. Some policemen injured in that incident police said.

Diyala

Around 10:30 am, a roadside bomb detonated in Muqdadiyah town(north east of Baquba).

- Around 11 am, a roadside bomb targeted an army patrol in Balad Ruz (east of Baquba). One soldier was killed and 4 others were injured.

Mosul

- A roadside bomb detonated in Mosul city targeted a police patrol. 6 people were injured including 4 policemen. '

Noonan on Palin: They Blew It!

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 04:32:00 +0000

One thing is what conservative pundits are saying in public about the McCain-Palin ticket. Another thing is what they think in private. Thanks to an accidental open-mike moment, we know the latter with regard to Mike Murphy and former Reagan speech writer Peggy Noonan. It turns out that they really think the choice of Palin was gimmicky, and a cynical attempt to create a 'political narrative' that would help McCain, but which would almost certainly hurt him instead. They are saddened that McCain stooped this low. The Republican political elite is "all bummed out" about it.

Here is the transcript:

' Mike Murphy: You know, because I come out of the blue swing state governor world: Engler, Whitman, Tommy Thompson, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush. I mean, these guys -- this is how you win a Texas race, just run it up. And it's not gonna work. And --

Peggy Noonan: It's over.

Mike Murphy: Still McCain can give a version of the Lieberman speech to do himself some good.

Chuck Todd: I also think the Palin pick is insulting to Kay Bailey Hutchinson, too.

Peggy Noonan: Saw Kay this morning.

CT: Yeah, she's never looked comfortable about this --

MM: They're all bummed out.

CT: Yeah, I mean is she really the most qualified woman they could have turned to?

Peggy Noonan: The most qualified? No! I think they went for this -- excuse me-- political bullshit about narratives --

CT: Yeah they went to a narrative.

MM: I totally agree.

Peggy Noonan: Every time the Republicans do that, because that's not where they live and it's not what they're good at, they blow it.

MM: You know what' sreally the worst thing about it? The greatness of McCain is no cynicism, and this is cynical.

CT: This is cynical, and as you called it, gimmicky.

MM: Yeah.'

The remark about McCain not being cynical, but this choice being cynical, sums up the change in McCain's demeanor since he started running for president this time.

But the real cynicism was the RNC talking points.

They want to fight big government?

They want to cut taxes on the middle classes?

They are reformers and against corruption?

See this Daily Kos diary for how implausible it all is.

Bombings in Mosul, Baghdad kill 11; Maliki's Conflict with Kurds Deepens; Anbar Sheikhs Angered by US Handover

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 04:21:00 +0000

DPA reports that "Seven people were killed in a car bombing in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul city Tuesday . . . a suicide bomber detonated his explosives-laden vehicle near an Iraqi army checkpoint in the eastern al-Quds neighbourhood, killing seven people and wounding seven. . . In Baghdad twin attacks that targeted police patrols left four people dead and 14 injured, the Voice of Iraq (VOI) news agency reported."

Reuters has more.

Among the dead was one US soldier, who died in a non-combat related incident.

Kurdistan president Masoud Barzani calls the al-Maliki government "totalitarian," comparing it to Saddam's tyranny. He warns that if a referendum is not held soon in Kirkuk province over whether it will join the Kurdistan Regional Government that Barzani heads, he will act to support the Kirkuk council's call for the city to be annexed into Kurdistan. Barzani's frustrations are clearly boiling over in this interview, and signal how near a military confrontation his Peshmerga security forces are with the Iraqi army and other Iraqi groups such a s Arabs and Turkmen.

Jonathan Steele's sources underline that if the Iraqi army insists on going into Kurdish regions in the north of Diyala Province, there could be a military confrontation between it and the Peshmerga. The crisis over control of security in the city of Khanaqin remains unresolved.

Joost Hilterman writing at Abu Aardvark also sees the situation as dire.

Time reports that America's tribal allies in al-Anbar province are angry that the US turned the province over to the Iraqi government. The Awakening Council and tribal leaders fear that the Baghdad government will use its control over the police and army to benefit the Iraqi Islamic Party, which currently controls the province but was elected with only 2% of the vote in January, 2005. The IIP is part of the Iraqi Accord Front, made up of Sunni fundamentalists, who recently rejoined the al-Maliki government. Money graf:

' Only a handful of the 40 or so Awakening leaders attended the ceremony in Ramadi, a snub that Sheikh Natah says was intended as a clear message to the government. At heart is a power struggle between the Awakening council and the Iraqi Islamic Party . . . Unlike the last time around in 2005, the Sunni tribal elders are eager to contest the polls, and say they wanted U.S. troops to remain in Anbar until after the elections to help ensure a free and fair ballot. They also want their key ally, police chief Major General Tareq Youssef al A'sal al Dulaimi, reinstated to the position he was ousted from just a few days ago. (Dulaimi was removed for unspecified "administrative" reasons.) The Awakening members say Dulaimi's sudden removal, which was approved by the Interior Ministry, has cemented their fears that their local Sunni rivals in the Iraqi Islamic Party are maneuvering to gain control of Anbar's 28,000-strong police force and purge it of tribal loyalists. . . . "If the Islamic Party continues to pressure the government to remove the Awakening members from the security forces ... then there is a high likelihood that Anbar will return to violence," Sheikh Natah says.'

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the US military has decided not to hand over security to the Iraqis in 6 ethnically mixed provinces until after the US elections. They include Salahuddin, Mosul, Baghdad, Diyala, Kirkuk and Hilla. The 12 provinces in which the US has given the lead to Iraqi forces on security are more ethnically or religiously homogeneous, in the Shiite south or the Kurdish north.

AP reports that Baghdad is still very dangerous despite lowered death tolls from political violence:

' Small scale bombings and shootings persist in the capital � each a reminder that the war is not over and that Baghdad remains a place where no trip is routine and residents are still guided by precautions. Most won't drive at night. Many try to avoid heavily clogged streets, remembering that suicide bombers and other attackers intent on killing large numbers of civilians favor traffic jams or congested areas . . . [in August] at least 360 civilians were killed and more than 470 wounded in violence throughout the country, according to an Associated Press count. '

That would be 4,320 civilians killed in political violence every year if the level stayed that low. (I take it this number excludes killed 'insurgents' and Iraqi security forces, so that actual number of war-related deaths would be much higher annually.)

It is estimated that 75,000 persons have died in the civil war in Sri Lanka since 1982, or 2800 a year.

Iraq is higher, just with regard to civilian casualties.

The Kashmir conflict is estimated to have killed 70,000 persons since 1988, or about 3500 a year.

Iraq is higher.

In the Lebanon Civil War of 1975-1990, it is estimated that at least 100,000 persons were killed, 75,000 civilians and 25,000 military.

If we extrapolated out Iraq's August death rate for civilians over 15 years, that would be 64,000 or not far from the toll in Lebanon's war.

Let me repeat: The level of violence at this moment in Iraq is similar to what prevailed on average during one of the 20th century's worst ethnic civil wars! It is still higher than the casualty rates in Sri Lanka and Kashmir, two of the worst ongoing conflicts in the world.

Only in an Orwellian society could our press declare the relative decline in monthly death tolls in Iraq to constitute "calm" in an absolute sense.

And that is if the August levels are taken as the baseline and if the numbers continue to be that low. If we averaged deaths during the previous 12 months, the baseline would be much higher.

The current Iraq Civil War is one of the world's most deadly continuing conflicts, worse than Sri Lanka and Kashmir and on a par with the 15-year long Lebanon Civil War!

CNN Does its Job, McCain Punishes It

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 04:15:00 +0000

Campbell Brown of CNN asks McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds some hard questions about Sarah Palin's national security experience and refuses to let him get away with illogical and self-contradictory answers.

John McCain was furious (and no one can be furious the way he can) and cancelled his planned interview on CNN in a fit of pique.

Amy Goodman Manhandled, Arrested for Protesting Arrest of News Staff

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 05:03:00 +0000

Thousands of protesters rallied against the Iraq War at the Republican Convention on Monday.

The thousands of protesters were almost all peaceful. I had US cable news on all day off and on, and never saw anything on it about the protests. Some teenager was pregnant, which is not their business or mine, but that was what they were talking about. Protesting the Republican Party's warmongering and lethal corruption for the past 8 years-- a record that has made it impolitick for George W. Bush to attend the conference of the party he still technically leads-- now that was unworthy of public comment.

A few at the rally were accused of breaking windows or throwing bottles at the police. 284 arrests were made.

The press accounts suggest that in some instances police acted overly aggressively (i.e. unconstitutionally), moving in on protesters who were peaceful.

Over the weekend, police seized printed materials and protest plans from some of the organizers and arrested a handful, charging them with conspiracy to commit civil disorder. Gee, you could have arrested Martin Luther King every day of the week on that charge.

That something was very wrong with at least some of the police response in Minneapolis is demonstrated by the arrest and manhandling of Amy Goodman and two of her staff members. They were there as press. They were not throwing anything. I know them, and have been on the show numerous times. They are honest, committed people, and if they say they were wrongly treated, they were.

Over the weekend, Democracy Now! reporter Elizabeth Press had been arrested, apparently for planning to film police response to the protests.

Among those arrested was Amy Goodman (video below), who was later released.

This site gives Amy's side of the story:

' ST. PAUL -- Democracy Now! host Amy Goodman and producers Sharif Abdel Kouddous and Nicole Salazar have all been released from police custody in St. Paul following their illegal arrest by Minneapolis Police on Monday afternoon.

All three were violently manhandled by law enforcement officers. Abdel Kouddous was slammed against a wall and the ground, leaving his arms scraped and bloodied. He sustained other injuries to his chest and back. Salazar's violent arrest by baton-wielding officers, during which she was slammed to the ground while yelling, "I'm Press! Press!," resulted in her nose bleeding, as well as causing facial pain. Goodman's arm was violently yanked by police as she was arrested.

On Tuesday, Democracy Now! will broadcast video of these arrests, as well as the broader police action. These will also be available on: Democracynow.org.

Goodman was arrested while questioning police about the unlawful detention of Kouddous and Salazar who were arrested while they carried out their journalistic duties in covering street demonstrations at the Republican National Convention. Goodman's crime appears to have been defending her colleagues and the freedom of the press.

Ramsey County Sheriff Bob Fletcher told Democracy Now! that Kouddous and Salazar were arrested on suspicion of rioting, a felony. While the three have been released, they all still face charges stemming from their unlawful arrest. Kouddous and Salazar face pending charges of suspicion of felony riot, while Goodman has been officially charged with obstruction of a legal process and interference with a "peace officer."

Democracy Now! forcefully rejects all of these charges as false and an attempt at intimidation of these journalists. We demand that the charges be immediately and completely dropped.'

Ever since Bush and his gang came to power, there has been a concerted attempt to destroy the First Amendment right to peaceful assembly.

New York City recently settled with antiwar protesters illegally arrested in spring of 2003, paying $2 million. Those protesters, remember, had been trying to avert the catastrophe that was the Iraq War, or at least not have it go without public expression of dissent.

Ironically, Democracy Now! is among the few news programs that tries to deliver real news to the American public, not the babysitting pap that passes for such so often in the corporate media. Of course, in our Bushwellian State, its staff would have to be arrested for committing News.

Hang in there, Amy.

US Turns over Al-Anbar; Is al-Maliki Too Cocky?

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 04:45:00 +0000

The US has handed over security duties in al-Anbar Province to Iraqi troops and police. Maj. Gen. John Kelly warns,however,that al-Anbar needs an infusion from the central government of cash for reconstruction if the province is to avoid going into insurgency yet again.

McClatchy reports on fears of American officials that Iraqi PM Nuri al-Maliki has become over-confident. Many of the relative successes his troops have had have depended on American close air support and logistical help, something these observers do not believe he can dispense with so soon.

There are also worries that al-Maliki wants to take over the Awakening Councils so that he can purge the Sunni Arabs serving in them.

The article also reveals that there has been a deterioration in the security situation in Basra in recent weeks, with a spike in assassinations. The American official who admitted this deterioration had to remain anonymous since his assessment is more negative than the facade put up by the Bush administration. It is a hell of a note when propaganda is the official story and people have to hide behind aliases if they just want to speak the truth.

Raed translates a leaked draft of the security agreement being negotiated between al-Maliki and Bush. Despite al-Maliki's emphasis in news conferences on preserving Iraq sovereignty, the draft agreement subordinates Iraq to the US military in several articles.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Sunday:

' Baghdad

Three civilians were injured by an adhesive bomb that was attached to their car. The incident took place in al Taharriyat intersection in Karrada neighborhood in downtown Baghdad around 12:30 p.m.

Around 7:00 pm. An IED explosion targeted the car of Emad Sa�id Jasim al Mish�hadani, the leader of the Sahwa council in Tarmiyah north of Baghdad. Al Mish�hadani was injured seriously.

Police found one unidentified body in Talbiyah neighborhood in east Baghdad.

Kirkuk

A child was killed and two other children were injured by a roadside bomb that targeted a patrol Kirkuk emergency forces in al Qadisiyah neighborhood in downtown Kirkuk city.

Ten people were injured including five guards work for Abdul Ameer Mahdi; the judge of Tuz Khurmatu court when a suicide car bomb targeted the convoy of Judge Mahdi on the road between Kirkuk and Tuz Khurmatu around 11:45 a.m.

Diyala

Three farmers (two brothers and their nephew were killed by a bomb that was planted inside the water pump of their farm in al Othmaniyah village south of Baquba on Monday evening.'

Mills: The Dangerous Myth of Energy Independence

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 04:16:00 +0000

Robin M. Mills writes in an op-ed for IC

A pernicious myth has recently re-emerged: that oil is �running out�, that global production will soon peak and enter inexorable decline. What is the proper response to �peak oil� � to attempt energy self-sufficiency, or to take military control of oil producing regions before the Chinese or Russians get there?

The current high energy prices emerge from a long period of low prices and under-investment, itself the fruit of the breakdown of international energy relationships in the oil crises of 1973-4 and 1978-80. Contrary to vocal �peak oil� claims, high prices are not due to a lack of resources in the ground. There remains vast potential around the world for increasing recovery from existing fields, discovering new oil, as recently in deepwater Brazil, or in the largely untouched US offshore, and for �unconventional� sources such as Canada�s famous �oil sands�, biofuels, synthetic fuels from natural gas and coal, and others.

Ideas about forestalling an oil crisis by �energy independence�, or by military action, are therefore mistaken. Indeed, such �solutions� are likely to create the crisis they seek to mitigate. �Energy independence� for the United States was touted by Nixon in 1974, by Ford in 1975, by Carter in 1977, by Reagan in 1981, by Bush Senior in 1991, by Clinton in 1992 and by Bush Junior in 2003, during which time American oil imports doubled. �Peak oil� ideas, recent high oil prices and fears of Middle East hostilities seem to have made the quest more urgent. Campaigns encourage American consumers to boycott Middle Eastern �terrorist oil�, and laws are proposed to sue OPEC. When Arab countries, even staunch US allies, attempt to recycle their oil earnings into the faltering American economy, politicians whip up media storms to keep them out.

Such a climate, with elements of paranoia, racism and Islamophobia, is profoundly harmful to the proper objective of energy policy: not independence, but security. Energy security is achieved when suppliers find markets, and markets find supply, at prices permitting both of them economic stability and growth. This requires a complex web of inter-relationships between producers and consumers. As the oil company Chevron observes in its advertising, �There are 193 countries in the world. None of them are energy independent�, a fact well illustrated by the USA�s recent deal to supply nuclear power technology to the oil-rich United Arab Emirates. In a global market, like that for oil, no country can wall itself off - compare the flourishing state of energy-poor Japan or Singapore with the poverty of isolated Burma or North Korea. Attempts by a major nation to achieve energy self-sufficiency are very distorting to economic competitiveness, as is clear from the contradictory blunders of 1970s US energy policy.

It is even worse when bad relations with major energy suppliers, and conflicting messages about future energy policy, discourage much-needed investment. If one side believes they are buying oil from terrorists, and the other thinks they are selling to neo-imperialists, it is not surprising that oil prices are high, investment is lacking and most of world oil reserves are monopolised by state companies. In fact, the Middle Eastern nations have generally been very reliable suppliers, and use of a mythical �oil weapon� is very unlikely � any r�gime would be reliant on its oil earnings to sustain the economy, while strategic reserves in the industrialised countries give some �staying power� to outlast an embargo. Moreover, while terrorists might manage to penetrate the strong defences of an oil facility and mount a spectacular attack, it is unlikely that they could achieve major, long-running disruptions in global energy supplies.

Policies to encourage US domestic production, increase efficiency and introduce alternative energy sources are desirable, often for environmental rather than energy security reasons, but they have to be pursued with vigour and resolution. With its �pork barrel� subsidies and the interminable, inconclusive debates over whether to open new exploration areas, build new pipelines and terminals for clean natural gas, extend support for renewable energy and increase mileage standards, United States energy policy has been more erratic and hostile to increasing output than most of the Middle Eastern countries. Promises to �jawbone� OPEC into supplying more oil sit very oddly with the US�s uniquely comprehensive moratoria on offshore oil and gas production.

Because of the abundance of oil and other energy sources, an era of �resource wars�, predicted by some, is far from inevitable, and certainly not a desirable policy outcome even for the likely �winners� of such wars. We should certainly not fall into the monomaniac trap of seeing every geopolitical conflict as rooted in oil policy. Military �control� of oil is not achievable or cost-effective, as the Iraq war shows, and as we know already from the Japanese experience in World War II, and Saddam Hussein�s attack on Iran. The expenditure on such wars vastly exceeds the value of any oil �secured�, and while production can struggle along in war-torn areas, it is impossible to develop major new fields. �Police actions� to deal with specific threats are entirely reasonable, as long as they are multi-lateral and proportional to the danger posed. It would be nice, although possibly a lot to ask, for them to be carried out competently.

Thus grandiose military adventures destroy the co-operation which is essential for global energy trade. �Energy independence� is a chimera, expensive, unachievable, and swimming against the tide of greater global economic integration. The world is not running out of oil, but we need a rational and balanced dialogue about how to co-operate on bringing that abundant energy to consumers. If the profound misunderstanding of, and hostility towards, the Middle East, continues, the house of energy security is being built on sand.

Robin M. Mills, author of �The Myth of the Oil Crisis� (Praeger, 2008)

ROBIN M. MILLS is an oil industry professional with a background in both geology and economics. Currently, he is Senior Evaluation Manager for Dubai Energy. Previously, he worked for Shell. Mills is a member of the International Association for Energy Economics and Association of International Petroleum Negotiators. He holds a Master's Degree in Geological Sciences from Cambridge University

Integration of Sunni Awakening Councils a Challenge; Some Mahdi Army Fighters Reject Ceasefire; Khanaqin Crisis with Kurds Unresolved

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 05:01:00 +0000

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that hundreds of members of the Mahdi Army of Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr are rejecting his call for a long-term ceasefire with US troops and their transformation into a service organization. The militants say they cannot conceive of their mission in life as anything other than violently opposing the presence of US troops in their country.

The US military is turning security in al-Anbar Province over to a largely Shiite government and army that "hates" the Sunni Awakening Councils that now provide much of the bulwark against radical Salafi fundamentalist guerrillas. Nevertheless, the Iraqi government is slated to take over payments to 55,000 of the Awakening Council fighters in October. Some doubt that this process will go smoothly.

One little-noted aspect of the struggle between the central government and the Awakening Councils is, as Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic, the conflict between the Iraqi Islamic Party (the Iraqi branch of the Muslim Brotherhood). Awakening leader Sheikh Mu'ayyad al-Hamishi complained Sunday that the Iraqi Islamic Party had attempted to piggy back on the Awakening movement by forming its own Awakening Councils, some of whom he implied were indisciplined and damaged the reputation of the movement as a whole. The Iraqi Islamic Party and its fundamentalist allies have 44 seats in Parliament and control several Sunni-majority provinces, and the IIP fears that the Awakening Councils as a political force will displace it in the upcoming provincial elections.

Al-Anbar Province will be a major test. US troop levels there have already declined from 37,000 in February to 28,000 today.

AFP profiles two members of a radical fundamentalist cell in Dhuluiyyah who have accepted an amnesty and laid down their arms, in part out of disgust at the foreign vigilantes' attacks on young Iraqi men they saw as collaborators.

The Iraqi government is mounting a campaign against what it calls 'squatters,' families who have moved into homes vacated because of ethnic cleansing. The campaign is part of PM Nuri al-Maliki's press for the return of Iraqi refugees from abroad. The some 200,000 refugees in Jordan are resisting al-Maliki's pressure on them to return. The United Nations High Commission on Refugees in Amman told me a couple of weeks ago that they do not consider it safe for Iraqis to go back. One big problem is that so many mixed neighborhoods have been ethnically cleansed of Sunnis that the latter do not actually have anywhere to return too-- their old neighborhood has been abolished in favor, of, e.g. a new Sadrist reality. That is why chasing the 'squatters' out won't do much good (and the squatters themselves are often victims of ethnic cleansing elsewhere. I doubt there are many Shiites left in al-Anbar province, e.g.). Al-Zaman says that a Sunni fundamentalist guerrilla attack on Sunday on Wathba near Baladruz in Diyala forced 48 families out, so that the ethnic cleansing is continuing. Al-Sharq al-Awsat says that 'al-Qaeda in Iraq' attacked the family of a local leader of the Awakening Council, killing 4, including two children, and frightening the other families into departing for provincial capital of Baquba. Many of these families had only recently returned to Wathba, in hopes security had improved.

Iraqi troops in Khanaqin ordered Kurdish political parties to vacate their offices, which apparently are in government-owned buildings. Khanaqin in northern Diyala Province was a stonghold of Faili Kurds, Shiites, who had been forced by Saddam over the border into Iran but who have returned in the tens of thousands since his fall. Many Kurds in Khanaqin want to join the Kurdistan Regional Government [KRG]. Ever since the Iraqi army went into Khanaqin and other Kurdish areas of Diyala Province, there has been tension between it and the Kurdish fighters or Peshmerga that had provided security to Kurdish areas. Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that parliamentarian Humam Hamudi of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (the main party backing al-Maliki) said al-Maliki had threatened any Peshmerga forces discovered in Iraq proper outside the KRG with prosecution. Hamudi implicitly threatened the Kurdistan government, saying that it is given 17% of Iraqi government revenue (from which the Peshmerga are paid) but that it should only be 13%.

Iraq's Chief of Staff, Gen. Babakr Zibari, insisted at a news conference on Sunday that Khanaqin is an indivisible part of Iraq and that the Iraqi military has the right to conduct operations in the city at will. Zibari is himself a Kurd.

Palin Laughs at Cancer-Surviving Senator being called a "Cancer"; Green: Palin 'Not Qualified to be Governor'

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 04:56:00 +0000

She could have insisted these male shock jocks be civil or defended another woman politician, Lyda Green, from being dismissed with an expletive.

GOP VP pick Sarah Palin laughs at cancer surviving senator being called a "bitch"

The Republican head of the Alaskan Senate, Green reacted this way to John McCain picking Palin as his running mate:

' State Senate President Lyda Green said she thought it was a joke when someone called her at 6 a.m. to give her the news. "She's not prepared to be governor. How can she be prepared to be vice president or president?" said Green, a Republican from Palin's hometown of Wasilla. "Look at what she's done to this state. What would she do to the nation?" Green, who has feuded with Palin repeatedly over the past two years, brought up the big oil tax increase Palin pushed through last year. She also pointed to the award of a $500 million state subsidy to a Canadian firm to pursue a natural gas pipeline that is far from guaranteed.'

But then Palin's running mate said "how do we beat the bitch?" was a "good question" and laughed when some guy said the same question pertained to his own wife.

OSC: Qabbanji and Saghir: Kirkuk Crisis Endangers Shiite-Kurdish Alliance

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 04:21:00 +0000

The USG Open Source Center translates Iraqi sermons from Friday

Roundup of Iraqi Friday Sermons 29 Aug
Iraq -- OSC Summary
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Document Type: OSC Summary

... On the "crisis of Kirkuk and Khanaqin," [Sheikh Sadr al-Din] Al-Qabbanji says: "There is a crisis in Iraq now called the Kirkuk crisis. There are Arabs, Kurds, and Turkomans who say that Kirkuk belongs to us. We also have the Khanaqin crisis. The armed forces affiliated with the central government entered Khanaqin and the brothers in the Kurdish Peshmerga said that this entry is unwarranted and consequently we have our position on this entry. This is a crisis in the country. It is the Kirkuk and the Khanaqin crisis. In this regard, we stress that the Shiite-Sunni-Kurdish alliance is the side that protected Iraq. This alliance should not be relinquished under any circumstances. This is a red line for us. We will not relinquish or violate the strategic and holy alliance between us and the Sunnis. You have seen how we dealt with the sectarian sedition until it was buried. The alliance between the Shiites and Kurds is also a strategic one and we will not relinquish it. We will not relinquish this alliance because of some minor issues. For us, this is a great principle; namely, the Shiite-Sunni-Kurdish alliance. This is a firm position which we will not relinquish. In this regard, we should resort to reason, logic, and the spirit of amity. It is true that these are rights, but it is also true that rights without amity are bitter."

Al-Qabbanji adds: "It is not in the interest of anyone to foment sedition regarding the Kirkuk issue.The only group that has interest in this are the Ba'thists. These Ba'thists area group of wolves. We expelled them from the village and they are now thinking of attacking the village once again. They cannot attack and cause internal problems among the people of the village."

He says: "Based on this, we call on the Kurdish brothers just as we call on the Arab and Turkoman brothers in Kirkuk to be aware of the challenges. We have great challenges ahead of us. We have an enemy that wants to kill all of us. We do not want anyone to relinquish his rights. However, it is wrong not to think of priorities. What are these priorities? The priority is the safety of Iraq."

On the election issue,Sayyid Hasan al-Zamili says: "The mother of all problems in this regard is the Kirkuk issue. We believe that delaying the elections until 1 December,taking into consideration that some sides are trying to delay the elections until 1 December, will create a real problem in the country. This will create a legal and political vacuum."

He adds: "We call on the Council of Representatives to have as its first priority to vote on the Election Law. We strongly and firmly demand that the elections should take place on the set date. Delaying the elections harms the country and the political situation and causes us various vacuums and problems. The one who benefits from these problems is only the one who is lying in wait for us, the bankrupt, and the one who opposes the political process."

He calls for avoiding "party, parochial, ethnic, and sectarian interests," saying that"all entities and groups should adopt a real national position." . . .

Buratha News Agency in Arabic -- Shiite news agency with strong anti-Sunni sentiment and focus on news of the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council, is observed to carry the following report on a Friday sermon by Shaykh Jalal-al-Din al-Saghir, imam and preacher of the Buratha Mosque:

In his Friday sermon,Al-Saghir says: "There is a defect that has nothing to do with this or that minister. In fact, there is a problem in the administrative and economic system in this country. If this defect is not solved, problems will not be solved.If we solve a problem here today, we will have another problem there tomorrow.This defect is the centralism of the state and its control on everything."

Al-Saghir then highlights the "private sector's" role in solving the problem of electricity and other problems in Iraq. He urges the government to "give a free rein"to the private sector to solve these problems. He says that the private sector can solve the problem of electricity "in one year."

On the elections and the Kirkuk issue, Al-Saghir says: "From the beginning I said that some sides want to use the Kirkuk issue as a bridge to cross to an agenda that is much bigger than the Kirkuk issue. One option is an ethnic war in Kirkuk. What does an ethnic war mean? It means that the situation will no longer be controlled by the Iraqis, but by all the neighboring states. This is because the neighboring states do not consider the Kirkuk issue as an issue that is particularly based on voting, but it is an issue that has to do with the ethnic issue that is connected with at least three major states; namely, Syria, Turkey, and Iran.This is in addition to the other states that are present in Iraq. If the situation proceeds toward an ethnic war, they will win. The side that has been tampering with the political process all this time will win. After they failed to ignite a sectarian war, incite the Shiites against the Sunnis and the Sunnis against the Shiites, and create a Shiite infighting and a Sunni infighting,they have come to try the other card; namely, to foment sedition between the Arabs and Kurds, between the Turkomans and Kurds, and then between the Turkomans and Arabs. So, the main goal is to create sedition and predicaments."

He says that the Kirkuk problem can only be solved by "political accords." He adds:"Now, I warn against what I have read and heard to the effect that Shaykh Jalal or the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council (IISC) have sold Kirkuk to the Kurds. I say that this is shameful. Kirkuk does not belong to the Kurds, to the Arabs, or to the Turkomans. It does not belong to any other side. Kirkuk belongs to Iraq and to all Iraqis. It cannot be sold through voting or talks here and there. It cannot be dealt with this way. Where did this fabrication come from?"

Al-Saghir adds: "The Ba'thists and the orphans of the Ba'thists have never been truthful to any Iraqi. So, how can they be truthful regarding this issue? Kirkuk and other areas would not have been lost had it not been to the crimes of these people.Kirkuk was a city of brotherhood."

He says: "I stress that we will solve the Kirkuk problem only based on the Constitution. Any side that claims it has a right should obtain this right through constitutional mechanisms. The one who believes that he can be present through gangs,terrorism, and illegal acts should look at Baghdad. Terrorism, which used towreak havoc in Baghdad every day, has been eliminated, and it will eventually be eliminated in all areas. I say that the wise men should hold the reins of the initiative and they should not allow those who have been playing this game all this time to continue with their bad game. These sides tried to depict things as if the so-and-so Ba'thist leader was the hero of the liberation of Kirkuk. This is a disgrace. The Ba'thists have displaced and killed people. If they think that their hopes are pinned on these criminals, then this will be a great victory for the Ba'thists."

He says: "Some sides are trying to create a problem for Iraq with Kuwait or a problem for Kuwait with Iraq. There are various trends in Kuwait and in Iraq which want to strain relations between the two states." He adds that "we do not expect the Wahhabi trend at the Kuwaiti Parliament to say a good word to improve relations between the Iraqi and Kuwaiti peoples." He says that "we know that some sides have interest in disrupting the new diplomatic atmospheres that began to open on Iraq," adding that the "I call for a wise policy and say that the politicians should not allow the media to create atmospheres to strain relations between us and Kuwait." He says:"Yes, we have problems. We have problems with Syria and Jordan and we have problems with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iran. However, these problems can be solved through normal political and diplomatic means. We have relations that are more important than these problems."

Al-Saghir says: "I do not forget here to remind the state of the tragedy of Iraqis in the Saudi prisons. There are more than 600 Iraqi detainees in Saudi Arabia, some of whom are tortured and some others are killed away from the eyes of the Iraqi Government. For this or that reason a person crosses the border with Saudi Arabia and this happens between the neighboring states. However, we view this issue with concern because these 600 detainees or more than 600 are all affiliated with one sect. So, this is a different story that has other faces. Therefore, I call on the Interior Ministry and the Foreign Ministry an tell them just as Saudi Arabia asks you about the (Saudi) detainees in Iraq, you should form a committee to go there to check on the Iraqis who are detained there. Frankly speaking, I spoke with some of these detainees from inside the prisons through a mediator. He gave me startling facts about what takes place inside these prisons in Rafhah, Hafar al-Batin, and in several cities where these detaineesare."

McCain, Palin and New Orleans

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 19:12:00 +0000

McCain on Katrina

' Forty Senators and 100 members of Congress visited New Orleans before he [McCain] did; he finally got there in March 2006. He voted against establishing a Congressional commission to examine the Federal, State, and local responses to Katrina in med-September 2005. He repeated that vote in 2006. He voted against allowing up to 52 weeks of unemployment benefits to people affected by the hurricane, and in 2006 voted against appropriating $109 billion in supplemental emergency funding, including $28 billion for hurricane relief.'

McCain's False FEMA promise:

'In the Senate, he consistently voted against more funds for FEMA [the Federal Emergency Management Agency], against making it an independent agency as it had been in the 1990s, and even against the creation of a commission to investigate how the government failed after Katrina. That indifference to learning from experience and adjusting accordingly is a central characteristic of movement conservatism.'

McCain's initial response to Katrina was not exactly frantic.

"While looking at historical records, [Kerry Emmanuel,] the atmospheric physicist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that the total power released by storms had drastically increased -- more than doubling in the Atlantic Ocean in the past 30 years."

Carbon emissions from burning oil, coal and gas are increasingly thought by scientists to be implicated in greater frequency and power of hurricanes, though weather is complex and other causes are also operating.

It is certainly the case that global warming will cause flooding of low-lying coastal areas, since warm water takes up more space than cold water and melting of the ice at the poles will raise levels, as well.

Sarah Palin does not think global warming is man-made! But then she thinks we should indoctrinate our children in the theory that Jesus rode a small dinosaur into Jerusalem, as well.

And, she is in favor of drilling pristine lands in Alaska (her husband works for British Petroleum):

McCain wants to spew more carbon into the atmosphere, by "drilling, right here, right now."

McCain falsely claimed that oil rigs can withstand hurricanes.

Does Al-Maliki's New Team Imperil Security Agreement? Al-Maliki asks Peshmerga to stay beyond Blue Line

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 05:08:00 +0000

The LAT reports doubts in Baghdad about whether the security agreement between the Bush administration and the Iraqi government will be achieved. Al-Maliki abruptly dismissed his negotiating team and replaced it with three officials close to himself. MP Mithal al-Alusi is convinced that the change was intended to derail the talks.

Diyala Province is still dangerous.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has called on the Peshmerga paramilitary to honor the "blue line" that divides the Kurdistan Regional Government from Iraq proper. Peshmerga troops are in north-eastern Iraq cities such as Khanaqin, producing tension with the Iraqi army, which is going into those same cities as part of al-Maliki's security campaign.

Anwar J. Ali writes about her trip to Baghdad at the NYT blog:

'The streets in Baghdad after 9 p.m. are very dangerous and full of army, police and American checkpoints. Sometimes they can�t understand why you are out late and shoot, and sometimes they understand. . . The streets were empty, shops were closed. There was only us, the army and the blast walls. As we were driving in this dead city and empty neighborhood we saw a man who was only wearing shorts sitting half-naked in the middle of the road, at midnight. . . '

Aljazeera English reports on the Sunni Arab Awakening Councils in Iraq and Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki's current crackdown on them. It raises the question of whether a battle looms between the Iraqi government and these American-backed militias. Mithal al-Alusi and Nir Rosen are interviewed.

Sadrists Sign Oath to fight US Troops

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 05:02:00 +0000

Shiites from the Sadr Movement in Iraq have been signing oaths in blood to struggle against the foreign military occupation of their country. This ritual affirmation comes despite the command from Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr to lay down their arms. Sadr has also spoken of creating a special forces unit to kill US and other coalition troops, despite the cease-fire he affirmed between his Mahdi Army and the US and Iraqi forces. Al-Sadr had called for these pledges signed in blood, but appeared to see them as binding the signers to a non-violent struggle. This AFP article suggests most of the signers do not see it that way.

A Sunni Arab member of parliament said Friday that he does not expect Iraq and the US to sign a security agreement. He thinks too many insuperable obstacles stand in the way,including that of immunity for US troops in Iraqi courts.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Kurdistan officials are complaining that the government of PM Nuri al-Maliki is marginalizing them.

The 11,000 Palestinian refugees in Iraq, expelled from their homeland by the Israelis, now live in fear and some are dwelling in squalor in border camps. It is hell to be stateless-- and has disenfranchising consequences in the 21st century analogous to slavery in the eighteenth.

Speaking of slavery, Nepalese workers are suing Kellogg, Brown and Root for human trafficking, claiming that a subcontractor pressed them into involuntary labor in Iraq.

Sunni Arab Awakening Council members in Diyala Province are Complaining to the US military that the Iraqi Army is harassing them.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the sermonizers at Friday prayers in Iraq on Saturday were pretty unanimous across age lines that the US must set a timetable for withdrawing US troops from Iraq..

OSC: Russia- Iran Alliance?

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 04:05:00 +0000

The USG Open Source Center translates an article from the Russian press proposing a strategic alliance between Russia and Iran.

Pundit on Possible Russia-Iran Alliance To Counter 'Unfriendly' US Moves
Article by Radzhab Safarov, General Director of the Russian Center for Iranian Studies: "Iranian Trump Card. Russia Can Take Control of Persian Gulf"
Vremya Novostey
Friday, August 29, 2008
Document Type: OSC Translated Text

The recognition of South Ossetia's and Abkhazia's independence by Russia is a timely step to protect these republics from new Georgian aggression. However, taking into account the United States' plans to expedite Georgia's and Ukraine's accession to the NATO military-political bloc, the situation near the Russian border remains alarming. At the same time Moscow has a lot of possibilities to take balanced counter measures to the United States' and entire NATO's unfriendly plans. In particular, Russia can rely on those countries that effectively oppose the United States' and their satellites' expansion. Only collective efforts can help to create a situation which would, if not eliminate then at least reduce the risk of the Cold War's transformation into local and global conflicts.

For instance, Moscow could strengthen its military-technical ties with Syria and launch negotiations on the reestablishment of its military presence in Cuba. However, the most serious step which the United States and especially Israel fear (incidentally, Israel supplied arms to Georgia) is hypothetical revision of Russia's foreign policy with regard to Iran. A strategic alliance presuming the signing of a new large-scale military political treaty with Iran could change the entire geopolitical picture of the contemporary world.

New allied relations may result in the deployment of at least two military bases in strategic regions of Iran. One military base could be deployed in the north of the country in the Iranian province of Eastern Azerbaijan and the other one in the south, on the Island of Qeshm in the Persian Gulf. Due to the base in Iran's Eastern Azerbaijan Russia would be able to monitor military activities in the Republic of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey and share this information with Iran.

The deployment of a military base on the Island of Qeshm would allow Russia to monitor the United States' and NATO's activities in the Persian Gulf zone, Iraq and other Arab states. With the help of special equipment Russia could effectively monitor whois sailing toward this sea bottleneck, from where, and with what cargo on board to enter the World Ocean or to return.

For the first time ever Russia will have a possibility to stop suspicious vessels and ships and inspect their cargo, which the Americans have been cynically doing in that zone for many decades. In exchange for the deployment of its military bases Russia could help the Iranians to deploy modern air defense and missile defense systems along the perimeter of its borders. Tehran, for instance, needs Russia's modern S-400 SAMs.

The Iranian leadership paid close attention to reports stating that the Georgian Government's secret resolution gave the United States and Israel a carte blanche to use Georgian territory and local military bases for delivering missile and bomb strikes against Iranian facilities in the event of need. Another neighbor, Turkey, is not only a NATO member, but also a powerful regional opponent and economic rival of Iran. In addition to this, the Republic of Azerbaijan has become the West's key partner on the issue of transportation of Caspian energy resources to world markets. The Iranians are also concerned at Baku's plans to give Western (above all American) capital access to the so-called Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea, which is fraught with new conflicts, because the legal status of the Caspian Sea has not been defined to date.

Russia and Iran can also accelerate the process of setting up a cartel of leading gas producers, which journalists have already dubbed the "gas OPEC." Russia and Iran occupy first and second place in the world respectively in terms of natural gas reserves. They jointly possess more than 60 percent of the world's gas deposits. Therefore, even small coordination in the elaboration of a single pricing policy may force one-half of the world, at least virtually entire Europe, to moderate its ambitions and treat gas exporters in a friendlier manner.

While moving toward allied relations, Russia can develop cooperation with Iran in virtually all areas, including nuclear power engineering. Russia can earn tens of billions of dollars on the construction of nuclear power plants in Iran alone. Tehran can receive not only economic, but also political support from Russia in the development of its own atomic energy sector.

In addition to this,in view of the imminent breakup of the CIS from which Georgia already pulled out, Russia could accelerate the process of accepting Iran as an equal member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). By accepting Iran, one of the key countries of the Islamic world, the organization could change fundamentally both in terms of its potential and in terms of its regional role. Meanwhile, as an SCO member Iran will find itself under the collective umbrella of this organization, including under the protection of such nuclear states as Russia and China. This will lay foundations for a powerful Russia-Iran-China axis,which the United States and its allies fear so much.

(Description of Source: Moscow Vremya Novostey in Russian -- Liberal, small-circulation paper that sometimes criticizes the government)

China Signs $3 Bn Deal with Iraq; Iraq Army Takes over Camp Ashraf; Chalabi Crony Arrested for Terrorism

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 05:00:00 +0000

The US military on Friday arrested Ali Faisal al-Lami, a Sadrist who served on the Debaathification Committee under Ahmad Chalabi. The Pentagon maintains that Al-Lami is deeply involved with Iran-backed "special group" cells and implicated in a bombing in Sadr City that killed several people including two GIs. Chalabi, a notorious liar and embezzler to whom Rumsfeld and the Neocons had intended to turn over Iraq, protested al-Lami's arrest and called for an end of the US ability to arrest Iraqis at will.

Chalabi's closeness to al-Lami raises the question of his own relationship to Iran and/or the special groups.

Al-Hayat writes in Arabic that PM Nuri al-Maliki has changed the team that is negotiating the security agreement with the United States. Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari has been dropped and the new team will be led by national security adviser Muwaffaq al-Rubaie.

The head of the voting commission says that it is now impossible to hold provincial elections on their original schedule. The enabling legislation has not been passed by parliament. February 2009 is the earliest the elections can now be held.

The Iraqi military has taken control of Camp Ashraf, the base of the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK) terrorist group,in accordance with a longstanding demand of Iraqi Shiite parties that are close to Iran. Saddam Hussein had given the MEK this base in order to harass Iran. It has been alleged that the Pentagon was deploying the MEK against Iran, as well, even though the US State Department has put the group on the terrorist watch list.

China has signed a $3 billion petroleum contract with Iraq for the development of Iraqi fields. A reader at reddit.com entitled this item "4,000 US troops die for China's access to Iraqi oil."

"U.S. Deputy Ambassador Alejandro Wolff told the [U.N.} meeting it was a violation of the U.N. charter for member states to use force against others, or threaten to use it, . . Russia's U.N. envoy, Vitaly Churkin, suggested Wolff's statement was hypocritical and referred to the U.S.-led March 2003 invasion of Iraq, which Moscow strongly opposed. "I would like to ask the distinguished representative of the United States -- weapons of mass destruction. Have you found them yet in Iraq or are you still looking for them?" Wolff accused Churkin of making false comparisons. "I'm not a psychologist and I don't know what brought on the free association we heard from Ambassador Churkin," he said. . . ."

No comment.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Thursday (please pay attention, Sen. McCain):

' Baghdad

- Early morning, gunmen assassinated the brigadier general Najam Abdullah from the 7th division of the Iraqi army and his wife in front of his house in Adel neighborhood (west Baghdad).

- Mortars hit the international zone (IZ) in central Baghdad. No casualties reported.

- Two roadside bombs targeted an American patrol near Al-Khansa police station in Mashtal(east Baghdad). No casualties reported.

- Around 11 am, a roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Baladiyat neighborhood (east Baghdad). Five people were injured (three policemen and two civilians).

- A mortar shell hit Baladiyat neighborhood (east Baghdad. Two people were injured.

- Around 2 pm, a roadside bomb targeted a police patrol near Al-Rubayee bridge in Karrada neighborhood (downtown Baghdad). Two policemen were injured.

- Police found two dead bodies in Baghdad today: 1 was found in Shaab neighborhood(north Baghdad) and 1 was found in Jihad neighborhood(west Baghdad).

Diyala

- Around 7:30 am, a roadside bomb detonated at Abu Shanuna in balad Ruz (east Baquba). One shepherd was killed.

Kirkuk

- Around 11 am, a roadside bomb detonated near Rashid Awa restaurant in downtown Kirkuk. One person was killed and 7 others were injured. Also some buildings and cars were damaged in the incident.

- Gunmen kidnapped 4 persons in bani Izz village in Qara Taba (north east Baghdad).'

Western Leaders of African Descent

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 04:16:00 +0000

Chris Matthews on MSNBC made the comment that if he won the presidency, Barack Obama would be the first "Western" leader of African descent. He then wondered if he was right, and whether there had been an African Roman Emperor.

The categories Matthews deployed are not very useful. We are all Africans, after all. Homo sapiens sapiens originated in southern Africa. We Africans did not even leave Africa until 70,000 years ago, and some much later. And groups keep intermarrying in history, so that even more recently African genes continually got propagated through Europe and Asia. (The whole world becomes inter-related again every fifty generations).

The construction of a "West" is of course artificial. And "African" covers a very large number of ethnic groups. And one would want to avoid the excesses of Afro-Centrism. But if we play the game in the terms Matthews set it out, the answer is: Hardly the first. Here are some "for examples" with no intention to be comprehensive. Readers are free to add more.

Piye and the other Nubian Pharaohs of the Twenty-Fifth Dynasty (8th century - 666 BC).

Then, Matthews was right to doubt himself on the issue of Roman emperors:

"Lucius Septimius Severus restored stability to the Roman empire after the tumultuous reign of the emperor Commodus . . . Severus was born 11 April 145 in the African city of Lepcis Magna, whose magnificent ruins are located in modern Libya, 130 miles east of Tripoli. . . . However, by giving greater pay and benefits to soldiers and annexing the troublesome lands of northern Mesopotamia into the Roman empire, Septimius Severus brought increasing financial and military burdens to Rome's government. His prudent administration allowed these burdens to be met during his eighteen years on the throne . . . "

"The anonymous late 4th-century Epitome de Caesaribus sets the birthplace of [the Emperor] Aemilianus . . . "on the island Meninx, which is now called Girba," modern Gerba, off the coast of western Tunisia and calls him a Moor"

The Almoravids and Almohads of Spain.

Fernando Henrique Cardoso, president of Brazil 1995-2002, who asserts African descent.

Likewise Hugo Chavez of Venezuela.

Black governors in the United States;

P.B.S. ("Pinckney Benton Stewart") Pinchback of Louisiana, in 1872.

Douglas Wilder of Virginia, in 1990

Deval Patrick of Massachusetts, in 2007

David Patterson of New York, in 2008

McCain: Iraq is a Peaceful, Stable Country

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 04:04:00 +0000

McCain: "Iraq is a peaceful, stable country now":

I'm hurt. I thought everyone who is anyone in Washington read IC. McCain seems to have missed these recent headlines here:

Wednesday, August 27, 2008: "45 Dead, 79 Wounded in Wave of Violence; Bombing in Jalawla' Raises Tensions with Baghdad"

Monday, August 25, 2008: "54 Killed in Bombings, attacks;
Water Crisis;Fixing the Intelligence Around the Policy"

Tuesday, August 19, 2008: "Kirkuk a Powderkeg: NYT;
Ramadi Bombing Targets Police"

"Monday, August 18, 2008: "Bombing Kills 15, Including AC Leader in Baghdad; Al-Sadr Calls for Blood Pledge of Holy Struggle Against Occupation"

Friday, August 15, 2008: "Bombing Kills 26 Pilgrims;
Iraq Seeks Regional Security Network with Iran, Turkey"

Monday, August 11, 2008: "Wave of Attacks Kills over a Dozen;US Soldier Killed, 2 Wounded at Tarmiyah; Zebari insists on Withdrawal Timeline"

Saturday, August 09, 2008: "2000 Georgian Troops Leaving;
Huge Blast at Tal Afar Kills 21; Arab-Kurdish Tensions in Kirkuk; Mahdi Army to Disarm if US Leaves"

Obama: 8 is Enough

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Cole) — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 04:01:00 +0000

Obama DNC Speech: 'Eight is enough'

Obama up in polls.